To accurately predict the potential of gold in the coming years, it is essential to understand the direction in which XAUUSD will go when completing the triangle. Analyzing the price history of similar instruments under similar conditions suggests that a breakout on the upside is more likely. Once the upper border of the triangle is broken, the target price will be located at the boundaries of the second global area, around 1950 - 2000 USD. After that, there may be a slight pullback, but if the buyers are strong enough, the price can push through the boundaries between areas 1 and 2, reach the previous all-time high at $2074, and even surpass it.
The next target will then be the level of 2350 US dollars. To forecast gold prices for 2025, we must consider the influential factors of this year. Earlier this year, Goldman Sachs indicated that the bullish commodity market observed last year is likely to continue during 2021 and beyond. In fact, the investment bank argues that this commodity supercycle could last up to 10 years.
Real gold prices have significantly deviated from the world bank's predicted price, raising questions about the reliability of their long-term gold price forecast. Gold investors should not use these price forecasts as an indication to sell gold from their portfolios. Coronavirus relief packages and periods of economic recovery have caused a decrease in gold prices, while rising inflation, pandemic spread and geopolitical tensions have made investments in gold much more attractive.
Jewelry and industrial demand
: Demand for gold from jewelry manufacturers and other companies that use gold in their products can also affect metal prices.When US government bond yields rise, gold is likely to trend sideways or even downwards, while declining yields tend to cause very positive movements in gold prices. As a gold investor does not receive any cash flow during the holding period, it is impossible to value gold using conventional valuation methods. A reduced supply due to government restrictions on mining will make gold even more precious and may increase its price. Although the United States has abandoned the gold standard, most central banks still accumulate gold reserves. Gold has proven to be an excellent long-term investment, and its prices have increased sixfold since 2000.
A multiple of the gold price to PE ratio of S&P 500 can be used to assess its valuation attractiveness. The low interest rate environment is beneficial for gold prices due to its lower opportunity cost of holding it.
Gold production
: Although the supply of gold never decreases, an increase in production can also significantly affect its price. The yield of gold in Indian rupees is significantly higher than its appreciation rate.If mining costs are reduced, it will be feasible to operate more gold mining projects, leading to an increased supply of gold. Most novice gold investors believe that if inflation increases in the U. S., then so should the price of gold as more inflation dollars will have to be paid per ounce. A gold investor in India has two sources of profitability: the price return on gold appreciation and currency return on Indian rupee depreciation. Gold has been a great long-term investment and its prices have increased sixfold since 2000.
